Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 190100Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of
the southern and central Plains. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes are possible.

…Discussion…

Weak disturbance aloft appears partly responsible for initiating
convection across northwest TX well ahead of the primary upper
trough. While this activity was initially supercellular in nature,
storm maturation has resulted in several clusters, and short line
segments. 00z soundings from FWD and OUN exhibit substantial
buoyancy with deep-layer shear more than adequate for sustained
rotating updrafts. There is some concern that renewed thunderstorm
activity will be noted later this evening across west TX as the
influence of the approaching trough reaches the western plume of
higher boundary-layer moisture. While the strongest mid-level height
falls will spread into the central High Plains, thunderstorms should
increase once again then spread toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise
Thursday. Primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters, line
segments, and isolated supercells. For these reasons will maintain
probabilities for all severe hazards.

..Darrow.. 03/19/2020

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