Valid 180100Z – 181200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS…
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible this evening into
the overnight from the Edwards Plateau into north-central Texas.
Evening water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving through the southern High Plains. This feature will
move eastward into the lower Missouri Valley by Wednesday morning.
A cluster of strong to severe storms is currently moving across
north-central Texas along an east-west oriented frontal zone. The
00Z FWD RAOB downstream of these storms shows somewhat weak
instability, however the wind profile is supportive for storm
maintenance. In addition, the low-level jet is expected to
strengthen this evening and into the overnight hours in response to
the north-eastward moving mid-level shortwave trough. Therefore,
some risk for isolated severe gusts may persist farther east toward
the I-35 corridor late this evening into the overnight hours.
Farther south, isolated storms are expected to continue along and
ahead of the surface dryline extending to the Big Bend. Upstream
mid-level lapse rates are modest (6.5 C/km) based on SPC
mesoanalysis and the 00Z MAF RAOB. However, an isolated severe
wind/hail threat may accompany the strongest cores.