Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171200Z – 181200Z


Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through the
evening across a large part of west, northwest, and north-central
Texas. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

…Southern Great Plains…
The nose of a mid to high-level speed max will quickly move from
northwest Mexico northeastward to the mid MS Valley during the
period. In the low levels, a lee trough will extend southward
through the southern High Plains from a weak area of low pressure
over the central High Plains. A stationary frontal zone will arc
east-southeastward from the TX Panhandle through the Red River
Valley during the day. The boundary will gradually advance
northward primarily after dark across portions of OK.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this morning to the north of the stationary boundary across southern
OK into the TX Panhandle. To the south of the front, southerly
low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of 60s dewpoints across
much of central TX. Heating/destabilization during the day will
contribute to moderate instability by peak heating. Storm
development is likely to focus over northwest TX near the boundary
intersection during the afternoon. Models are currently depicting
the residual frontal zone to remain draped west-east across the Red
River Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Other isolated
storms will likely develop later down the dryline as convective
inhibition erodes coincident with the arrival of a mid-level
disturbance moving into the southern High Plains. Large hail and
severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. Upscale growth
is forecast during the evening across parts of the Edwards Plateau
with gusty winds becoming the primary risk. Elevated thunderstorms
may pose an isolated risk for mostly hail but possibly wind across
OK beginning during the late afternoon and perhaps sporadically
lingering into the overnight hours as a LLJ strengthens over
OK/north TX.

..Smith/Bentley.. 03/17/2020


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