Valid 162000Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING…
…SUMMARY…
A thunderstorm or two may produce severe hail and wind across the
Texas Big Bend region through early evening.
…20z Update…
The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10% general
thunder probabilities across portions of CA and the northern Great
Basin vicinity, as well as parts of OK to MO/IL. Otherwise, the
previous outlook remains on track with isolated strong to severe
storms possible through this evening across the TX Big Bend region.
..Leitman.. 03/16/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/
…TX Big Bend…
A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern
Trans-Pecos and Big Bend of TX during the late afternoon. This
activity may occur along the northern rim of a more-extensive
convective regime likely to form southward along the dryline in
eastern Chihuahua, spreading into western Coahuila. Typically steep
mid-level lapse rates atop the western periphery of 55-60 F surface
dew points, in conjunction with 30-40 kt effective shear should
support the potential for a short-track supercell or two capable of
isolated severe hail and wind. This activity should weaken after
sunset before reaching the Edwards Plateau.
$$