Valid 162000Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING…
A thunderstorm or two may produce severe hail and wind across the
Texas Big Bend region through early evening.
The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10% general
thunder probabilities across portions of CA and the northern Great
Basin vicinity, as well as parts of OK to MO/IL. Otherwise, the
previous outlook remains on track with isolated strong to severe
storms possible through this evening across the TX Big Bend region.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/
…TX Big Bend…
A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern
Trans-Pecos and Big Bend of TX during the late afternoon. This
activity may occur along the northern rim of a more-extensive
convective regime likely to form southward along the dryline in
eastern Chihuahua, spreading into western Coahuila. Typically steep
mid-level lapse rates atop the western periphery of 55-60 F surface
dew points, in conjunction with 30-40 kt effective shear should
support the potential for a short-track supercell or two capable of
isolated severe hail and wind. This activity should weaken after
sunset before reaching the Edwards Plateau.