Valid 151200Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
Isolated severe storms may occur Sunday across parts of west Texas
and far southeastern New Mexico.
…West Texas/Southeast New Mexico…
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
off the Baja Peninsula moving northeast in line with latest model
guidance. This feature is forecast to track across northern Mexico
during the day with a vort max approaching the Big Bend region of TX
by 16/00z. Downstream, surface pressures are expected to remain high
across the Plains which will maintain easterly low-level
boundary-layer flow across south-central TX into the Big Bend. As a
result, surface dew points should gradually rise into the higher
terrain ahead of the aforementioned short wave.
Prior to the disturbance, elevated convection is expected to develop
across the TX South Plains along the nose of LLJ. This early-day
activity could generate marginally severe hail before progressing
northeast and weakening. Potentially more significant thunderstorm
development is possible near, or just after 00z, across the Big
Bend. While large-scale heights are not expected to fall across this
region, there appears to be some support for upward evolving
convection where upslope flow and strong shear will coincide.
Forecast soundings for MRF favor supercells with large hail.
Additionally, low-level shear also seems supportive for at least
some tornado threat with discrete storms that remain near-surface