Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141200Z – 151200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Saturday.


Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over
the southern Rockies ejecting northeast toward the central Plains.
This feature is forecast to flatten the low-latitude upper ridge as
it translates across the Mid-MS Valley before approaching the Middle
Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. In response to this
feature, LLJ will veer across OK by the start of the period then
progress into the TN Valley where it should encourage bouts of
convection along/north of a synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings
along this corridor exhibit poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy, thus
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Farther southwest along the synoptic front that trails across
south-central TX into Coahuila, negligible large-scale forcing for
ascent will be noted. As a result, convective chances are predicated
on strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences. With
strong heating forecast across the higher terrain of northern
Mexico, isolated thunderstorms could develop within a sheared
environment favorable for sustained rotating updrafts. Forecast
soundings suggest isolated supercells could develop southwest of DRT
after 20z then shift east toward south-central TX. Several members
of the HREF suggest organized convection may spread into TX with
some severe threat. However, boundary-layer conditions will likely
remain fairly stable east of the Rio Grande and large-scale support
will be lacking. As a result, this should limit any severe threat,
and for these reasons will not introduce severe probs during the
day1 period.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/14/2020


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