Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 140100Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TX…

…SUMMARY…
Large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and some tornado threat are
expected tonight across parts of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

…01z Update…

Several discrete supercells have matured across far west TX this
evening along the cool side of a synoptic front that is draped from
Tom Green to Reeves County. This activity has evolved within a
strongly sheared environment that supports sustained rotating
updrafts. However, the most favorable thermodynamic environment is
narrowly focused near/just south of the wind shift which suggests a
narrow corridor for long-lived supercells to track near/just south
of a line from INK-MAF. 00z sounding from MAF sampled the cool side
of the boundary well with stable boundary-layer conditions at least
1km deep. For these reasons, will orient the ENH Risk along this
corridor where large hail should be noted with these storms. Tornado
risk should remain focused near the frontal zone where surface-based
parcels are decidedly buoyant.

..Darrow.. 03/14/2020

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