Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 132000Z – 141200Z


A few tornadoes, large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts are
expected later this afternoon into tonight across parts of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Only minor changes were made to the previous convective outlook and
are described below.
1) Expanded lowest-tier severe probabilities farther west into
south-central NM and Far West TX based on visible satellite/heating
2) Sharpened the tornado probability gradient to the north of the
Midland vicinity.

..Smith.. 03/13/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/

…West TX and southeast NM…
The greatest severe weather potential should remain spatially
confined to portions of the Permian Basin where an upgrade to
Enhanced Risk appears warranted.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the mid
afternoon over eastern slopes of higher terrain across the western
parts of the outlook area, from southeast NM through the TX
Trans-Pecos. This activity should develop along the northwest extent
of the surface baroclinic zone characterized by mid to upper 50s
surface dew points, aided by a combination of weak upslope flow and
heating of higher terrain.

A pocket of MLCAPE between 750-1500 J/kg should be present by peak
heating across the Pecos Valley. Veering with height of the
low-level wind profile beneath very strong speed shear above 700 mb
will yield a rather elongated hodograph, supportive of splitting
supercells. Potential will exist for a couple long-track supercells
spreading east along the west-east oriented portion of the surface
front that is expected to lie along the Concho Valley. Although
mid-level lapse rates should not be particularly steep given the
positive-tilt of the approaching shortwave trough, 70 kt effective
shear and supercell mode could favor isolated significant severe
hail. Tornado potential will probably be maximized across the Pecos
Valley and with any supercell that can remain sustained near the
front where low-level SRH should be maximized. Increasingly
pronounced MLCIN with southern/eastern extent should spatially
confine the overall severe threat tonight.


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