Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 121630Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM MUCH OF KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS….

…SUMMARY…
Severe storms capable of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail,
will be possible today from central Arkansas eastward into parts of
southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northern Tennessee, and much
of Kentucky.

…Southern IL into Kentucky…
Water vapor loop shows a fast moving low-amplitude shortwave trough
over KS. This feature will track eastward into the mid MS valley
later today. At the surface, a low will move across MO while a warm
front becomes better established across southern IL and KY. This
boundary will likely be the focus of severe thunderstorms later
today.

A cluster of ongoing storms west of St Louis, along with new storms
forming over western KY will track eastward today along the warm
front. Despite dewpoints only in the 50s to lower 60s, sufficient
destabilization will result in MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Deep layer shear will promote supercell structures capable of all
severe risks. Most 12z models show a compact low/mid level jet max
tracking across western/central KY during the afternoon. This will
lead to a corridor of impressive low-level vertical shear and
helicity – favorable for strong tornadoes if discrete convective
mode is established/maintained. Otherwise, damaging winds would be
the main threat with bowing structures. The threat may persist well
after dark into eastern KY and perhaps western WV before
diminishing.

…southeast MO into AR…
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a trailing cold front
this afternoon from southeast MO into much of AR. These storms will
likely be supercellular with an early risk of large hail and a few
tornadoes. Storms will be active for several hours this evening
before weakening as they track into west TN.

..Hart/Coniglio.. 03/12/2020

$$

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