Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 120100Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with a hail threat may develop tonight
across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

…Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley…
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
across the Southeast with a plume of mid-level moisture extending
from Oklahoma into Arkansas and Mississippi. Warm advection will
increase in the wake of the shortwave trough across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley this evening. In response, convection will likely
develop across southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi from late
this evening into the early overnight period. The RAP shows MLCAPE
of 1000 to 1200 J/kg extending across far northeast Texas into
southern Arkansas. This combined with about 50 kt of effective shear
evident on the Little Rock 00Z sounding may be enough for a marginal
hail threat.

..Broyles.. 03/12/2020

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