Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 112000Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS/AL…

…SUMMARY…
A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible today from parts of Arkansas into Alabama.

…20z Update…

Convection across portions of northern MS/AL has generally weakened
this afternoon. However, where pockets of clearing have occurred,
temperatures are rebounding back into the 60s with low 60s
dewpoints. Latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening CU
developing in this area along a stalled front/outflow boundary
across northern MS, and extends westward into AR. Additional
isolated development is possible in these areas through this
evening, with hail and gusty winds the main threat if storms do
develop. Further to the southeast ahead of the line of storms from
east-central MS into central AL, some potential will exist in the
short-term for re-intensification/new development. Ref MCD 166 for
further short-term details regarding this downstream environment and
WW 45.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/

…AR into AL…
A large and moderately organized MCS is tracking southeastward
across parts of AR/west TN/northern MS this morning. The activity
is moving into a more moist and unstable boundary layer, with
dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures warming into the 70s this
afternoon over the SLGT risk area. Recent radar trends have
suggested some weakening, but odds are that a few storms along the
leading edge of the MCS will intensify to severe levels later today.
Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear for robust updrafts capable of hail and
perhaps a tornado or two. If the MCS can regain organization, a
damaging wind threat would also develop. Storms are expected to move
into western AL by late afternoon and early evening before a slow
weakening trend occurs.

$$

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