Valid 111630Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN ALABAMA…
A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible today from parts of Arkansas into Alabama.
…AR into AL…
A large and moderately organized MCS is tracking southeastward
across parts of AR/west TN/northern MS this morning. The activity
is moving into a more moist and unstable boundary layer, with
dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures warming into the 70s this
afternoon over the SLGT risk area. Recent radar trends have
suggested some weakening, but odds are that a few storms along the
leading edge of the MCS will intensify to severe levels later today.
Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear for robust updrafts capable of hail and
perhaps a tornado or two. If the MCS can regain organization, a
damaging wind threat would also develop. Storms are expected to move
into western AL by late afternoon and early evening before a slow
weakening trend occurs.