Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 110100Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KS INTO THE OZARKS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and perhaps
some strong/gusty winds may occur tonight from parts of Kansas into
the Ozarks.

…Kansas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks…
Convection is forecast to develop later tonight (around 04-06Z)
across parts of central KS as a southwesterly low-level jet
strengthens over the southern/central Plains. These storms will be
elevated, but strong speed shear will be present in the
cloud-bearing layer as an upper trough develops southeastward from
the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg
should be present tonight from portions of central KS into the
Ozarks. Initial cellular development may pose an isolated large hail
risk, but a quick transition to a small cluster will likely occur
across southeastern KS and vicinity. Confidence was not high enough
to include greater severe hail probabilities across KS, as the storm
mode transition from cellular to mainly linear may occur in a 1-3
hour period. The potential for downdraft winds associated with the
small cluster to breach the near-surface stable layer likewise
appears fairly limited, but occasional strong/gusty winds cannot be
ruled out.

…California…
Storms that formed this afternoon across the higher terrain of
coastal southern CA have moved northeastward into a progressively
less unstable environment across the southern San Joaquin Valley.
Persistent, widespread cloud cover across this region and the loss
of diurnal heating should tend to limit the potential for
strong/gusty winds through the remainder of the evening into
tonight. One low-topped supercell in southeastern Kern County should
also weaken within the next hour given the very marginal
thermodynamic environment.

..Gleason.. 03/11/2020

$$

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