Valid 102000Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE OZARK REGION AND OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds
are possible tonight from parts of Kansas to the Ozarks. Other
storms with a threat for mainly hail are possible over a portion of
southern California this afternoon. Strong winds with fast-moving
showers also may affect a portion of the Mid-Atlantic this
No significant changes have been made to previous MRGL risk areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/
A relatively deep upper low is slowly approaching southern CA.
Satellite and radar imagery show multiple bands of showers that will
move/develop inland this afternoon. Relatively widespread cloud
cover will limit destabilization, but cooling midlevel temperatures
and significant large-scale forcing associated with an approaching
80 knot midlevel jet max will foster the development of a few
thunderstorms across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties
CA. This activity is forecast to rotate into Kern county later this
afternoon, with recent CAM solutions suggesting one or two storms
becoming organized with a risk of gusty winds or small hail. The
overall risk of severe storms appears marginal.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow across parts of the
central Plains will promote scattered thunderstorm development
tonight (after midnight) across central KS. Forecast soundings
suggest the potential for elevated CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg,
along with sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few strong storms.
The initial storms may produce hail, but a general evolution toward
bowing segments is expected through the late-night period. A stable
layer near the ground will limit the risk of severe wind gusts, but
some gusty winds are possible.