Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 100100Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
EARLY THIS EVENING…

…SUMMARY…
A strong to locally severe thunderstorm or two may occur this
evening from parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks.

…Eastern OK/Ozarks…
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving across MO with this feature expected to reach the
southern Great Lakes later tonight. Surface mesoanalysis showed an
eastward-moving cold front from central MO extending southward into
eastern OK. A broken band of convection has developed this evening
within a narrow instability axis extending from southeast OK
northward into the MO Ozarks. The 00z Springfield, MO raob showed
around 200 J/kg MUCAPE with a strong wind profile. Despite the weak
instability sampled over the northern half of the Marginal Risk (MO
Ozarks), some risk for damaging gusts may continue until the mid
evening hours before the activity moves eastward into a slightly
cooler boundary layer. Farther south, a strong storm or two is
possible over southeast OK and far western AR before weakening later
this evening.

..Smith.. 03/10/2020

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