Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 092000Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK
AND SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO AND WESTERN AR…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur this evening
from far southeast Kansas into central Missouri, eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas.

…20z Update — KS/MO…

Overall the previous outlook philosophy remains unchanged with this
update. The Marginal risk area was expanded northward across a small
portion of southeast KS into west-central MO. Visible satellite and
radar trends show deepening CU and strengthening reflectivity cores
in this area, just ahead of the surface cold front. Observed
temperatures are a couple degrees warmer than forecast by some
guidance and dewpoints also are a little higher. Based on modified
RAP forecast soundings using these observations, and CAMs trends,
some strong to severe wind/hail threat could materialize across this
area. Otherwise, no other changes have been made to the Marginal
risk area.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020/

…MO/OK/AR…
A strong shortwave trough is moving eastward across the central
Plains, with a surface low moving eastward across KS. Southerly low
level winds ahead of the low will maintain 50s dewpoints across
eastern OK into parts of MO/AR. Extensive cloud cover is present
across the region, which will limit overall destabilization.
Nevertheless, max MLCAPE late this afternoon and evening will
generally be around 500 J/kg.

Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop
near the surface low and along the cold front as it advances into
the region. Most activity will remain weak due to limited
instability. However, multiple CAMs suggest isolated robust cells
will form from central MO into eastern OK. Forecast soundings show
strong shear profiles that would support a risk of gusty/damaging
winds or a brief tornado or two in the strongest cells – mainly
during the 00-05z window. Current indications are that areal threat
of severe storms is quite low.

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.