Valid 091630Z – 101200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI…EASTERN
OKLAHOMA…AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…
Isolated hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur this evening
from central Missouri and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
A strong shortwave trough is moving eastward across the central
Plains, with a surface low moving eastward across KS. Southerly low
level winds ahead of the low will maintain 50s dewpoints across
eastern OK into parts of MO/AR. Extensive cloud cover is present
across the region, which will limit overall destabilization.
Nevertheless, max MLCAPE late this afternoon and evening will
generally be around 500 J/kg.
Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop
near the surface low and along the cold front as it advances into
the region. Most activity will remain weak due to limited
instability. However, multiple CAMs suggest isolated robust cells
will form from central MO into eastern OK. Forecast soundings show
strong shear profiles that would support a risk of gusty/damaging
winds or a brief tornado or two in the strongest cells – mainly
during the 00-05z window. Current indications are that areal threat
of severe storms is quite low.