Valid 091300Z – 101200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
FROM EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR TO SOUTHWESTERN MO…
Isolated large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur this
evening from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and southwestern
…Eastern OK and vicinity this evening…
A midlevel shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains
this morning will eject northeastward to the OH Valley tonight, as
an associated surface cyclone in southwest KS moves to northern MO
this afternoon and Lower MI overnight. Widespread clouds and rain
are present within the warm conveyor this morning from north TX to
MO, and this band of rainfall will shift eastward through the day.
Some clearing of the mid-high clouds is expected this afternoon from
eastern OK to central MO, with a narrow corridor of stronger surface
heating just in advance of a surface cold front from north TX into
eastern OK. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F in combination with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support
MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. There will be a narrow window of opportunity
for surface-based thunderstorm development across eastern OK from
mid-late afternoon, and storms could persist into this evening.
Though buoyancy will be rather limited, seasonably cool midlevel
temperatures (-15 C at 500 mb) and vertical shear profiles
sufficient for supercells will support a low-end threat for large
hail and damaging winds from about 22-02z.