Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 091200Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…

…SUMMARY…
A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, potentially capable of
hail and localized damaging gusts, is forecast across parts of the
western Ozark Plateau during the early evening hours.

…Eastern OK/western Ozark Plateau…
An east-northeastward migratory shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains to the OH Valley during the period.
Gradually moistening, southerly low-level flow is forecast across
the eastern OK vicinity during the day in wake of early day
clouds/rain. By late afternoon, a cold front is progged to extend
from a surface low over the mid MS Valley southwestward into OK with
the trailing portion of the boundary located in northwest TX.
Models are showing a narrow plume of 56-60 degrees F surface
dewpoints extending from the Red River north-northeast to the
MO/AR/OK border region by early evening. Heating coupled with the
modest boundary layer moisture will likely yield 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE
across eastern OK. Low-level convergence on the boundary and
weakening CINH will probably contribute to at least isolated storms
developing along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening. As
the storms intensify during a narrow time window during the early
evening (2 hour period), large hail and locally severe gusts may
accompany the stronger storms before this activity dissipates by mid
evening.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/09/2020

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