Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 090100Z – 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the Lower 48 states
through tonight.

Early evening water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east-northeastward across the Desert Southwest. The
aforementioned disturbance is forecast to reach the southern High
Plains by early Monday morning. A deep subtropical plume of
moisture emanating from the east Pacific has overspread the southern
Rockies/High Plains this evening. Forcing for ascent associated
with the migratory impulse will contribute to isolated thunderstorms
this evening over northern NM/CO. Strong low-level warm air
advection facilitated by a strong 55-kt southerly LLJ over the
central/southern Plains tonight, will likely contribute to isolated
elevated thunderstorms developing from the central High Plains east
into parts of IA late tonight. Storm intensity will remain below
severe thresholds.

..Smith.. 03/09/2020


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