Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081630Z – 091200Z


A few thunderstorms are possible across the central Rockies, Plains,
and southwest Texas, but severe weather is not expected.

A mid-level shortwave currently located across the Desert Southwest
will migrate northeastward, reaching the central Plains by the end
of the forecast period. The combination of surface
heating/insolation and cooling mid-level temperatures aloft
associated with the wave will promote showers and isolated
thunderstorms initially over UT/CO through the afternoon hours.
This evening, lift associated with the advancing wave, and
increasing low-level flow, and steepening lapse rates associated
with an EML will result in a few elevated thunderstorms that may
produce small hail near the CO/KS/NE border area. Warm-advection
will also contribute to development of bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms northeastward through Iowa and vicinity. Limited
instability should mitigate any severe risk in these areas.

Additional thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and vicinity
during the evening – primarily in response to lift associated with
the aforementioned mid-level wave. Though low-level and deep shear
profiles are impressive, weak/negligible surface-based instability
(owing to 50-55F dewpoints and weak lapse rates) should mitigate the
severe threat in this area. The primary window for thunderstorm
activity should exist between 21Z and 04Z.

..Cook.. 03/08/2020


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