Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081300Z – 091200Z


A few thunderstorms are possible across the central Rockies, Plains,
and southwest Texas, but severe weather is not expected.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
A shortwave trough will move across the Four Corners states and into
the Plains, providing lift and thunderstorm chances mainly over the
central and southern Rockies/Plains. Low pressure will develop over
eastern CO during the afternoon, shifting into KS overnight and
providing a focus for convection. Lift will also extend northeast
along a cold front overnight from NE into WI, with glancing warm
advection due to a southwesterly low-level jet.

A large surface high over the Southeast will maintain relatively dry
low-level trajectories into the Plains, with only 45-50 F dewpoints
across much of the warm sector. Heating will result in steep lapse
rates over the Four Corners states and into western NE and KS where
MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg may develop. Similar values will develop over
southwest TX near the lee trough. Both areas may see gusty winds and
very small hail with some of the storms, but severe weather is
unlikely due to weak instability.

..Jewell.. 03/08/2020


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