Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081200Z – 091200Z


The risk for severe weather will be quite low across the U.S. today.

An upper-level ridge will steadily shift eastward from the central
Plains into the eastern third of the CONUS. Within the West, a
split-flow regime will bring shortwave troughs across portions of
the northern and southern Rockies. At the surface, the continued
presence of a strong surface high within the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic
will bring dry/stable conditions across the East. A surface
trough/cold front will initially be located across the Dakotas. The
front will move southward as lee troughing/cyclogenesis occurs in
eastern Colorado in response to the approaching southern stream
shortwave trough.

Thunderstorms are probable across the higher terrain of central New
Mexico and Colorado during the afternoon and early evening as the
shortwave passes overhead. Limited moisture ahead of the southward
advancing cold front in the central Plains should keep precipitation
minimal. Later in the evening, however, increasing moisture
advection northward toward the boundary will promote isolated to
widely-scattered elevated storms from the KS/NE border into IA. Weak
buoyancy will greatly limit storm intensity.

Across the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend regions, isolated thunderstorms
are also possible during the afternoon and evening. Boundary-layer
moisture will be on the increase through the day, with the most
plausible scenario being dewpoints reaching the low 50s F. High
cloud cover associated with a northeastward moving moisture plume
will also limit surface heating/destabilization. Similarly weak
buoyancy will limit severe potential in these areas as well.

..Wendt.. 03/08/2020


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