Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061300Z – 071200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

…Synopsis…
Strong cyclogenesis is expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast through
tonight, as an amplifying midlevel trough approaches from the OH
Valley. An associated surface cold front will move across the Keys
and southeast FL coast by midday, and 12z soundings from Key West
and Miami suggest that thunderstorms are unlikely given only
weak/shallow forcing for ascent this morning. Otherwise, a Pacific
midlevel trough will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern CA
coasts by the end of the period, though the colder midlevel
temperatures and steeper lapse rates/deeper buoyancy should remain
offshore. Some weak midlevel convection may occur overnight from
northeast OR to southeast WA/ID Panhandle where steep lapse rates
aloft will coincide with the main baroclinic zone. However,
moisture/buoyancy should remain quite marginal, and the threat for
thunderstorms is too low to justify an outlook area.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/06/2020

$$

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