Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 060100Z – 061200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…

…SUMMARY…
Limited/lingering severe risk will continue to diminish this evening
across northeast Florida.

…Discussion…
A band of showers and thunderstorms continues across northern
Florida and east-northeastward off the coast just east of JAX, along
the remnant surface boundary and associated/weak frontal low.

Though an amply unstable airmass persists across northern and
central Florida ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weakening
convergence along the boundary — as the upper system over the
Carolinas/Virginia vicinity continues to progress northeastward/away
from the Southeast — suggests that convection will continue to
slowly diminish.

In the mean time, with the background kinematic and thermodynamic
environment supportive of organized storms and associated/local
severe risk, will maintain a small MRGL risk area over northeast
Florida, where the most active/ongoing convection persists. Risk
should continue to diminish, to sub-MRGL thresholds through
midnight.

..Goss.. 03/06/2020

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