Valid 051630Z – 061200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA…
A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, a couple of
tornadoes, and isolated large hail will be possible today across
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Latest surface analysis shows a low over the western tip of the FL
peninsula, with a warm front extending eastward from the low into
southern GA. A remnant outflow boundary is lifting northward through
northern FL and will merge with the warm front early this afternoon.
The air mass in the warm sector is moist, unstable, and strongly
sheared. Forecast soundings for later this afternoon show MLCAPE
over 1500 J/kg and impressive vertical shear profiles conducive to
supercell storms. The primary forecast concern is whether deep
convection can become established in this area. The upper trough is
lifting away from the region, low-level winds will slowly veer, and
convergence in the boundary-layer will be weak. This lowers
confidence that any intense storms will form.
Present indications are that greatest concern for a severe storm or
two will be over southeast GA and northeast FL, especially near the
coast. 12z CAM solutions suggest this is the most likely area of
intensification – before storms move offshore. Any storm that can
develop in the warm sector or along the warm front may become
supercellular, capable of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The
severe risk should end by mid-evening.