Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 050100Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA…

…SUMMARY…
Local severe risk may linger across the Gulf Coast region overnight,
though overall risk continues to gradually diminish.

…Discussion…
Recent surface analysis and radar mosaic loop depicts a cold
front/outflow conglomerate boundary that continues advancing
southward toward the northern Gulf — particularly over the lower
Mississippi Valley region where surface pressure rises are indicated
behind the southward boundary surge.

The boundary currently extends from south of Lake Pontchartrain in
southern Louisiana, east-northeastward to southern Georgia, with the
most widespread, ongoing convection persisting near and north of the
front. This anafrontal nature to the convection should continue to
prevail for the remainder of the period as low-level warm advection
continues in advance of the eastward-moving upper system currently
residing over northeast Texas.

Though southward advance of the front may slow overnight — or even
retreat slightly northward late as height falls overspread the area,
surface-based severe risk should continue to gradually diminish with
time overnight. This warrants removal of the existing SLGT risk
area, though MRGL severe risk will be maintained through the end of
the period.

..Goss.. 03/05/2020

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