Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 042000Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage, hail and a couple
of tornadoes are expected today from southeast Texas eastward to
southern Georgia.

…20z Update…

Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across south-central TX
toward the lower MS Valley. This is contributing to a southeastward
push to the surface boundary across TX/southwest LA. While the
majority of convection remains along/north of the boundary,
warm-sector thunderstorms are now developing across southern LA
where partial breaks in cloud cover have contributed to increased
buoyancy. Greatest short-term risk appears to be ahead of the short
wave over the lower MS Valley where this warm sector activity is
currently evolving.

..Darrow.. 03/04/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2020/

…TX into Southeast States…
Numerous lines and clusters of thunderstorms are occurring this
morning from parts of TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states into
GA. Ample low level moisture is present along and south of the
primary surface boundary which extends from southeast TX into
southern LA – then eastward along the MS/AL coast into southern GA.
This corridor in vicinity of the boundary will be most likely to see
occasional strong to severe thunderstorm activity. Fast westerly
flow aloft and a tendency for convection to organize into
north-south oriented lines suggest that damaging winds are the
primary threat. However, sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates
will pose some risk of hail in the strongest cells over the TX/LA/MS
portions of the SLGT risk area. Boundary interactions and
sufficiently strong low level shear also suggest a tornado or two is
possible along the length of the boundary.

$$

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