Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 041300Z – 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage, hail and a couple
of tornadoes are expected today from southeast Texas eastward to
southern Georgia, along and just north of I-10.

…Southeast TX to southern GA today…
The closed midlevel low over the Big Bend will eject
east-northeastward to the lower MS Valley tonight, as a northern
stream shortwave trough amplifies over the north central states. At
the surface, a low near San Antonio this morning will develop
generally eastward along the I-10 corridor along an east-west
baroclinic zone. Along and south of the boundary, boundary-layer
dewpoints of 65-70 F will be maintained through the day from
southeast TX eastward to the northeast Gulf coast, beneath a remnant
elevated mixed layer plume. Pockets of surface heating will support
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg along and south of the front, and MUCAPE
near 1000 J/kg will extend a couple of counties/parishes north of
the surface boundary. Meanwhile, deep-layer vertical shear will
remain favorable for supercells and organized bowing segments along
and north of the front.

Convection has been increasing in coverage since about 09z across
MS/AL, and rain-cooled air is reinforcing the front and it is now
moving southward across southern MS/AL. This trend will likely
continue today, with the front providing the main focus for severe
storms. Storm coverage is beginning to increase as of 12z across
central/east central TX along the deeper baroclinic zone, and
additional storm formation is likely in this area this morning as
the midlevel trough and stronger forcing for ascent approach from
the west (as evidenced by the ongoing strong-severe storms in the
Austin-San Antonio corridor). Large hail and damaging gusts will be
the main threats with the storms on the cool side of the boundary,
while a couple of tornadoes will be possible with supercells/bowing
segments interacting with the surface front and associated stronger
low-level shear/SRH compared to the warm sector to the south.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/04/2020


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