Valid 031630Z – 041200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS…
Thunderstorms with locally damaging winds will be possible today in
corridors from West Virginia to New Jersey and in North Carolina.
Additional severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
expected tonight, mainly across central Texas.
A complex convective day is forecast across the nation, with several
areas having at least a low risk of damaging wind gusts. A more
substantial and organized risk of severe storms will materialize
after dark across central and southwest TX.
A relatively deep upper low is moving across northwest Mexico.
Increasingly strong southeasterly low-level winds will help to
transport Gulf moisture into southwest TX, with MLCAPE values around
1000 J/kg after 00z. Large-scale lift ahead of this feature will
help to initiate scattered thunderstorms after dark across southwest
TX, with activity spreading eastward into central TX overnight.
Model guidance suggests a mix of cellular and linear modes will
occur, capable of large hail and damaging winds. This threat may
persist through much of the night.
…WV into NJ…
Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over KY.
This feature will track eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region
through the day. Considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the
40s to lower 50s will greatly limit the amount of destabilization in
this area, with afternoon MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg.
Nevertheless, strong forcing will likely result in a cluster of
fast-moving showers and thunderstorms. Given the weak thermodynamics
and presentation in 12z CAMs, will maintain only MRGL risk but
re-evaluate area at 20z update.
The tail end of the aforementioned trough moving through the
Mid-Atlantic region will affect the Carolinas later today. As the
leading edge of the forcing overspreads a more moist and unstable
air mass over eastern NC, a majority of models suggest that a line
of thunderstorms will form. A few of these storms may sufficiently
intensify to produce gusty/damaging wind gusts.