Valid 210100Z – 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY…
Storms developing this evening and overnight tonight will pose a
risk for severe hail and wind across the north central Plains into
lower Missouri Valley.
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible along the outflow
boundary extending from northern AR across TN, eastern KY, and into
far eastern OH. Vertical shear is weak, leading to transient
updrafts along the boundary but ample low-level moisture and strong
buoyancy support water-loading and strong wet downbursts.
Farther west across central High Plains, thunderstorms ongoing
within the moist and steep lapse rate environment continue to pose a
risk for large hail and strong wind gusts. A tornado or two also
still remains possible. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen
tonight across the southern and central Plains, contributing to an
increase in thunderstorms across NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates
(sampled well by the 00Z LBF sounding) and very moist low-levels
will likely result in strong updrafts capable of hail. Some
potential exists upscale growth and the development of a deep cold
pool, resulting in a forward-propagating MCS. This MCS would pose a
threat for strong wind gusts and large hail.