Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 021300Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN TN…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the
Mid-South region southwestward across parts of northeastern Texas
late this afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

…Mid-South to northeast TX this evening into tonight…
Split flow regime will persist through early Tuesday as a closed low
off the southern CA coast moves eastward to northwest Mexico, and a
northern stream trough digs southeastward from AB to the upper MS
Valley. At the surface, a weak low will move east-northeastward
along a baroclinic zone from southeast OK this morning to the lower
OH Valley by tonight. Low-level moistening continues to the south
of the front, and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will
spread north-northeastward toward the Mid-South through this
evening. This moistening will occur beneath the eastern extent of a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates over the southern Plains, though
the base of the elevated mixed layer will be warm enough to cap the
boundary layer until late this afternoon into early tonight.

The initial convective cluster centered over the MO Bootheel as of
12z will weaken this morning. Convective inhibition and only weak
forcing for ascent will tend to delay additional thunderstorm
development across AR until late this afternoon/evening, when a few
storms should form along the slow-moving front. MLCAPE near 1500
J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kt will favor supercells
capable of producing large hail, given the midlevel lapse rates in
excess of 8 C/km and cool midlevel temperatures. A modest increase
in low-level shear this evening could support a low-end tornado
threat, as well.

Farther southwest, isolated thunderstorm development is also
possible this evening along the front into northeast TX. However, a
shallow moist boundary layer and widespread high clouds cast some
doubt on diurnal storm formation. Assuming storms form this
evening, isolated large hail and damaging gusts will be possible.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/02/2020

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