Valid 020100Z – 021200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI VICINITY…
A few strong/locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Arkansas and southern Missouri vicinity, mainly this evening.
…Southern Missouri/Arkansas vicinity…
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across parts
of the Mid Mississippi Valley area, in a zone of warm advection
associated with a 50 kt low-level jet. Weak instability is
indicated across the area, though a stronger storm or two could
produce marginally severe hail/wind gusts.
Later, additional convection may develop just to the west — over
portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas — near the
advancing cold front. Similar to areas farther east, instability
may prove sufficient to support a few stronger/sustained updrafts,
and associated risk for marginally severe hail/wind gusts.