Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 012000Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Arkansas and southern Missouri vicinity, mainly this evening.

…Arkansas through southern Missouri…

No changes have been made to previous forecast. A few severe storms
with a threat for mainly hail and strong wind gusts remain possible
over the lower MS Valley this evening within an evolving warm
advection regime.

..Dial.. 03/01/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2020/

…AR/southern MO…
A modifying low-level moisture plume (characterized by 50s to low
60s surface dew points) emanating from the western Gulf will
gradually expand across the south-central states through the period.
On the eastern periphery of the moisture plume within a warm
advection regime, convection is expected to form towards 00Z from AR
through the Mid-MS Valley. Upstream development is also possible in
the southwest MO vicinity later in the evening as a cold front
impinges on the northwest extent of the moisture plume.

Mid-level lapse rates are rather steep across the region, supporting
a risk for hail production as MUCAPE increases to 500-1000 J/kg.
However, deep-layer shear will be modest, especially with northern
extent, suggesting that supercells should struggle to be sustained
north of AR and that a cluster convective mode will dominate. A
relatively dry sub-cloud region across eastern AR and adjacent
portions of the Lower MS Valley may support isolated strong wind
gusts despite convection largely being rooted above the
boundary-layer here. The marginal severe risk should subside
overnight/early morning Monday.

$$

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