Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011200Z – 021200Z


Severe storms are not expected today. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop within a zone centered over the mid Mississippi
Valley, and also over portions of the central Rockies and
central/southern California.

As an upper trough continues moving eastward out of the Northeast, a
split-flow pattern will continue to evolve farther west, as a
northern-stream short-wave trough moves eastward roughly along the
U.S./Canadian border. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave
trough digging southward across the California vicinity is expected
to quickly evolve into a deepening closed low, reaching southern
California by the end of the period.

At the surface, an expansive cold front — stretching from the
northern Plains southwestward across the Great Basin to central
California early — will advance eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes and into the southern Plains and Desert Southwest through the
end of the period.

…Arklatex region north-northeast to the Midwest…
As subtle short-wave troughing aloft crosses the central U.S., ahead
of the main upper system digging across the western states,
low-level warm advection/QG forcing should support a gradual
increase in elevated convection. A few showers over east Texas and
into the Arklatex early in the period should spread northeastward
while gradually increasing in coverage. By late afternoon, a few
embedded thunderstorms may evolve across the Arklatex/eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas region, spreading eastward/northeastward
with time. Overnight and into early Monday morning, showers and
sporadic lightning will likely have spread as far northeast as the
mid Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. With weak, elevated instability
expected, only small hail is expected with a couple of the strongest

…Portions of the Rockies westward to California…
Showers are expected to accompany the evolving upper system as it
shifts southward across the West, particularly in the vicinity of
the advancing surface frontal zone. Heating over the higher terrain
of western and central Colorado, and into parts of Utah, may permit
a few stronger afternoon updrafts, and correspondingly a few
lightning flashes. Some lightning is also expected farther west,
into portions of central and southern California near the developing
upper low, mainly during the evening and overnight.

..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/01/2020


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