Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 291300Z – 011200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the
Pacific Northwest.

…Synopsis…
An initial shortwave trough is moving inland over WA, as an upstream
trough digs south-southeastward toward northern CA by the end of the
period. Cold midlevel temperatures (near -36 C at 500 mb) and
associated steep low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak
buoyancy today to the west of the Cascades across WA/OR, while
daytime heating and low-level upslope flow near the WA/OR/ID border
will also support weak buoyancy and low-topped convection. Isolated
lightning flashes will be possible in both areas. The baroclinic
zone associated with the initial shortwave trough will move
southeastward into the northern Great Basin this afternoon. Steep
lapse rates and deep vertical mixing are expected near and south of
the front, but low-level moisture should remain too limited for
thunderstorms.

Otherwise, cool and/or dry conditions will dominate the CONUS east
of the Rockies. A modifying Gulf air mass will begin to return to
the TX coast late in the period, but warm midlevel temperatures will
preclude thunderstorms.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/29/2020

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