Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 271200Z – 281200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today
through tonight.

…Discussion…
While the most vigorous embedded short wave trough continues
pivoting across and north/northwest of New England and the St.
Lawrence Valley today, around the periphery of a deepening mid-level
low over southeastern Ontario into southwestern Quebec, positively
tilted large-scale troughing appears likely to linger across much of
the nation east of the Rockies. Much of the West is expected to
remain under the influence of mid-level ridging, downstream of a
short wave trough within one branch of westerlies over the northern
mid-latitude Pacific, as well as downstream of troughing and an
embedded closed low within another branch across the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific.

Beneath the eastern Canadian mid-level low, some further deepening
of the initial associated surface cyclone is possible before it
begins to weaken, while a secondary surface low to the
east-southeast occludes across the Hudson Valley into New England.
The cold front trailing the latter feature is expected to advance
well east of the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard, including
the Florida Peninsula, by 12Z this morning, with cold surface
ridging prominent across much of the Gulf Coast states and Gulf of
Mexico.

In association with this regime, stable conditions will prevail
across much of the U.S. by 12Z this morning, with little change
expected today through tonight, resulting in generally negligible
risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr/Cook.. 02/27/2020

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