Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 261200Z – 271200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA…

…SUMMARY…
A line of storms may pose a risk for strong to damaging winds during
the late afternoon/evening across the Mid-Atlantic States, with
strong wind gusts also possible across parts of the Florida
Peninsula.

…Synopsis…
An upper trough along the length of the MS Valley will pivot
northeast across the OH Valley by 00Z, and into the Northeast
overnight as a surface low develops from WV into NY. A cold front
will extend south from the low, affecting the Mid Atlantic as well
as FL late in the day. A surge of westerly winds will be strongest
over the Mid Atlantic during the evening and near a developing dry
slot.

At the surface, mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the
front from eastern GA into the Carolinas during the day, and into
southeast VA after 00Z. While the bulk of the QG forcing will shift
north into PA and NY, strong convergence with the wind shift and
sufficient instability will likely result in scattered storms
capable of locally damaging wind gusts over the Mid Atlantic.

Farther south, more robust moisture will exist over FL with mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints, which will fuel scattered daytime cells, as
well as a line of storms along the front capable of locally damaging
winds.

…Mid Atlantic…
Weak instability to at or below 500 J/kg is expected to develop by
00Z ahead of a surging cold front across NC and eastern VA. A narrow
line of low-topped convection is anticipated along the front,
extending from PA into central VA during the early evening, with the
possibility of a few elevated cells farther east in the warm
advection regime. While the boundary layer will remain relatively
cool and stable north of MD, strong convergence in the low-levels
may allow for the line to produce localized wind damage. Given a
tight midlevel temperature gradient, a distinct southern bound to
the line of storms is expected over northern NC.

…Florida…
Heating of a moist air mass will lead to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by
late afternoon near the front over the central Peninsula. This will
precede a developing line of storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
As this line traverses the state, primarily straight hodographs will
favor localized wind damage.

..Jewell/Cook.. 02/26/2020

$$

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