Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 260210Z – 261200Z



Isolated lightning flashes remain possible through tonight over
parts of the Southeast. A few storms will persist over far southern
Texas through evening.

…Far southern Texas…
Storms have rapidly formed along the boundary northwest of
Brownsville, where low-level moisture has locally deepened despite
only 45 J/kg MLCAPE on the 00Z BRO sounding. The result is a broken
line of cells, possibly containing hail primarily below severe
limits. Now developed, these cells will likely persist until they
move offshore.

A front will remain nearly stationary over northern FL tonight,
where minimal instability exists. Most of the convection has
remained offshore, and this trend will likely persist tonight with a
cooling air mass over land. Weak convection remains possible
however, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. In addition,
shallow convection is expected south of the front tonight, and a
lightning flash cannot be ruled out.

Farther north, cooler temperatures aloft are aiding instability
levels despite less low-level moisture. An axis of 250 J/kg MLCAPE
currently stretches from GA into central SC, and may support
sporadic convective showers.

..Jewell.. 02/26/2020


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