Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251200Z – 261200Z


A few storms may produce strong wind gusts over parts of northern
Florida, but severe weather is not anticipated.

A large upper trough will amplify over the central U.S. with a 100
kt midlevel jet developing from TX into the lower MS Valley. Little
moisture will exist in these regions in the wake of the previous
day’s frontal passage, but a few low-topped convective showers will
be possible beneath very cold temperatures aloft across KS and
northern OK.

Farther east, a surface trough/wind shift will remain stationary
from the central Carolinas into GA and the FL Panhandle, with modest
low-level moisture in place. Here, neutral to rising heights will
exist, along with gradual drying from the west. Only isolated weak
activity is expected in these areas.

The greatest threat for thunderstorms appears to be with a
persistent band of precipitation forecast to extend from the central
Gulf of Mexico northeastward into northern FL. Forecast soundings
suggest around 500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible, along with generally
unidirectional wind profiles. Steepening low-level lapse rates from
heating along the southern periphery of this rain band may support a
few strong storms, but weak instability, warm temperatures around
700 mb and only modest wind speeds below that level suggest storms
will remain sub-severe. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon.

..Jewell/Cook.. 02/25/2020


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