Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 250100Z – 251200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are likely through tonight over parts of
Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Alabama. Severe weather
is not expected.

…Discussion…
A shortwave trough will continue to lose amplitude as it moves east
across the OH Valley, with a cold front trailing south from a
weakening surface low over the lower OH Valley. Southwest winds
aloft will maintain a moist atmosphere over parts of the Southeast,
primarily beneath a 40-50 kt low-level jet from northern FL into GA.
The 00Z TLH sounding shows strong shear, but very little
instability. While a storm producing gusty winds cannot be ruled out
over the FL Panhandle in closer proximity to 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE,
the presence of relatively cool air over land and weakening system
will generally minimize severe potential.

Elsewhere, an upper trough is currently digging south across the
Rockies, with height falls and a cold front interacting with meager
low-level moisture to produce low-topped convection from southwest
KS into the TX Panhandle. Strong wind gusts will occur with the
front, with sporadic lightning possible through evening. This band
of rain and snow will generally weaken after 06Z as low-level lapse
rates are reduced overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2020

$$

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