Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 242000Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE…AND FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated marginally severe storms are possible from southern
Missouri into northern Mississippi during the afternoon and early
evening.

…Discussion…
Only minor changes in the Marginal Risk have been made to the
previous convective outlook. Model data suggests the ongoing
convective band located over AR this afternoon will continue to
develop east-northeastward over the next several hours. Peak
intensity of the convective line will likely occur this afternoon
with weakening expected by early evening. Current thinking is the
window of opportunity will become increasingly limited for northern
MS to appreciably destabilize. Given the proximity to stratiform
rain over central MS, have reduced probabilities over much of
northern MS to account for the stratiform rain’s stabilizing
influence of the MS boundary layer.

..Smith.. 02/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/

…Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley…
A strong and progressive shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot
midlevel jet max is tracking across KS/OK/AR. A relatively deep
surface low over northeast OK will track eastward across southern
MO/northern AR through the day, with a trailing pacific front
sweeping across AR and eventually into parts of TN/MS. This
boundary will be the focus for convective development by
mid-afternoon as low-level moisture increases and partial clearing
occurs.

A consensus of 12z CAMS suggest that low-topped thunderstorms will
develop 21-23z over eastern AR and spread eastward across the MRGL
risk area. Forecast soundings show that storms will likely be
surface-based, but will struggle to attain significant intensity due
to limited moisture/instability. Nevertheless, a few of the storms
may become strong for an hour or two with the potential for hail,
gusty winds, or even a brief tornado.

…FL Panhandle…
Increasing low-level moisture will eventually lead to the potential
for surface-based thunderstorms over parts of the FL Panhandle and
southeast AL this evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
CAPE/shear profiles for a conditional risk of a rotating storm or
two, but weak large-scale forcing and little signal in models for
robust updrafts suggest overall threat is low.

$$

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