Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241630Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated marginally severe storms are possible from southern
Missouri into northern Mississippi during the afternoon and early
evening.

…Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley…
A strong and progressive shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot
midlevel jet max is tracking across KS/OK/AR. A relatively deep
surface low over northeast OK will track eastward across southern
MO/northern AR through the day, with a trailing pacific front
sweeping across AR and eventually into parts of TN/MS. This
boundary will be the focus for convective development by
mid-afternoon as low-level moisture increases and partial clearing
occurs.

A consensus of 12z CAMS suggest that low-topped thunderstorms will
develop 21-23z over eastern AR and spread eastward across the MRGL
risk area. Forecast soundings show that storms will likely be
surface-based, but will struggle to attain significant intensity due
to limited moisture/instability. Nevertheless, a few of the storms
may become strong for an hour or two with the potential for hail,
gusty winds, or even a brief tornado.

…FL Panhandle…
Increasing low-level moisture will eventually lead to the potential
for surface-based thunderstorms over parts of the FL Panhandle and
southeast AL this evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
CAPE/shear profiles for a conditional risk of a rotating storm or
two, but weak large-scale forcing and little signal in models for
robust updrafts suggest overall threat is low.

..Hart/Mosier.. 02/24/2020

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