Valid 231630Z – 241200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE…SOUTHWEST
KANSAS…AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA…
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
south-central Great Plains late this afternoon into early evening.
…TX Panhandle into western OK/KS…
An upper trough is progressing eastward across the Four Corners
region today. At the surface, a low currently over the OK Panhandle
will deepen this afternoon and move slowly northeastward into
southwest KS. Southerly low-level winds in the associated warm
sector will help to transport an increasingly moist air mass
(dewpoints in the lower 50s) into the vicinity of the low. Visible
imagery suggests this region will see considerable sunshine today,
helping to steepen low-level lapse rates and yield afternoon MLCAPE
values of around 500 J/kg.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the low during
the mid-late afternoon as midlevel heights fall and surface heating
weakens the cap. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest isolated storms
will develop sufficient organization to pose a risk of small to
marginally severe hail as they track northeastward into southwest KS
and eventually weaken.
Farther south in western OK, slightly more moist/unstable conditions
may aid in an isolated strong storm or two continuing after dark.
While the overall risk of severe storms appears marginal, hail or a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.