Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible during the late
afternoon into early evening mainly over parts of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Hail or a brief/weak tornado will be possible.

…Southern High Plains…
An upper low will deepen as it moves east from the Four Corners into
the central Plains, with a deepening surface low over the TX
Panhandle during the day. Heating will steepen low-level lapse rates
over the southern high Plains, with veering surface winds behind a
dryline across the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains. Ahead of
the dryline, south winds and mixing should result in mid to upper
40s F dewpoints up to the triple point which is forecast to be over
the central OK Panhandle around 21Z.

Despite meager moisture, steepening lapse rates will likely result
in a pocket of around 500 J/kg MUCAPE over parts of the TX and OK
Panhandles, shifting into far western OK during the evening as the
low-level jet increases to 40 kt. Strong lift by 21Z will result in
a broken line of storms near the surface low, where supercell wind
profiles will exist. Marginally severe hail is expected, and a
brief/weak tornado threat may exist as well. As heating abates and
the system shifts east of the surface lapse rate plume, storms will
become wholly elevated by 03Z, affecting much of OK. Small hail is
possible with the nocturnal activity as well.

..Jewell/Cook.. 02/23/2020

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