Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 191200Z – 201200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorm probabilities will remain very low Wednesday.

…Discussion…

Large-scale pattern is expected to change little through the day1
period. The predominant feature Wednesday will be an expansive area
of surface high pressure that will extend across most of the
contiguous United States. As a result, meaningful
moisture/instability will be shunted offshore and any disturbances
that eject across low latitudes will struggle to generate deep
convection. While moisture/instability will be limited across the
Gulf States, pockets of weak elevated buoyancy may contribute to
shallow convection north of the frontal zone where warm advection is
expected to aid precipitation. While a lightning flash or two can
not be ruled out within the strongest showers, the probability for
thunderstorms appears less than 10%.

..Darrow.. 02/19/2020

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