Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 181630Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DEEP SOUTH…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
evening across parts of the Deep South.

…Deep South…
A cold front continues to settle southeastward across Tennessee,
southern Arkansas, far northern Mississippi with some augmentation
by existing convection, which is prevalent not only along/behind the
front, but also within the warm sector where cloud cover remains
fairly extensive. These clouds will tend to hinder overall
heating/destabilization as the boundary layer otherwise gradually
moistens.

While heavy rainfall will likely be the most prominent hazard today
and tonight, some potential exists for severe storms this afternoon
through early evening. Where modest but adequate destabilization
occurs, deepening/intensifying convection in the presence of long
hodographs (40-55 kt effective shear) with modest low-level
curvature could yield sustained/weakly rotating updrafts this
afternoon. Adequate SRH may exist across northern/central portions
of Mississippi/Alabama to yield a brief tornado. Small to marginally
severe hail will also be possible, but locally damaging wind gusts
would be more probable.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 02/18/2020

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