Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171300Z – 181200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected in the contiguous U.S. through

…South-central and Southeast States…
A shortwave trough will amplify over the Upper MS Valley tonight,
inducing cyclogenesis across the central Great Lakes. A broad warm
conveyor belt will support theta-e advection from the western Gulf
towards the Lower Great Lakes. Elevated convection may develop as
early as this afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States as
low-level moistening eventually supports weak buoyancy. This is
expected to shift northeast across the Deep South tonight with
embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A separate corridor of
convection with embedded thunderstorms should develop tonight in the
Mid-South region as low-level convergence strengthens along a cold
front trailing southwest from the central Great Lakes cyclone.

..Grams.. 02/17/2020


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