Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171200Z – 181200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday night from parts of east
Texas into the Southeast.

…Discussion…

Deep westerlies will be noted across much of the contiguous United
States during the day1 period with weak mid-level height rises
expected across the eastern US. While large-scale forcing for ascent
is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, low-level warm
advection should focus across the lower MS Valley into the OH Valley
as veered LLJ develops along this corridor. Latest short-range model
guidance suggests higher-PW air mass will return north across the
western Gulf Basin, advancing inland into the central Gulf States
during the latter half of the period. This air-mass modification
should result in increasingly buoyant profiles after 18/00z such
that parcels lifted near 850mb could yield MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/kg. While forcing will not be particularly concentrated,
or strong, elevated convection is expected to develop within the
warm-advection zone. Forecast shear profiles suggest some of this
activity could be sustained, and possibly robust enough to produce
small hail. Additionally, convection may also develop along a
frontal zone as it sags southeast across the mid-South region. Even
so, the prospect for organized severe thunderstorms appears low this
period.

..Darrow/Dean.. 02/17/2020

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