Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 162000Z – 171200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.

…20Z Update…
Prior forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Removal of the general
thunderstorm area across parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the western
FL Panhandle has been made based on recent radar and observational

..Gleason.. 02/16/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020/

…Gulf Coast/Southeast States…
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will undergo modest additional
amplification while otherwise steadily moving eastward over the
region. Related warm/moist advection and modest elevated buoyancy
will continue to support isolated thunderstorms from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico north-northeastward toward the middle
Gulf Coast/northern Florida. Additional heating and some increase in
convergence inland should also support the development of convection
this afternoon over additional parts of the Florida Peninsula.


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