Valid 162000Z – 171200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous U.S.
Prior forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Removal of the general
thunderstorm area across parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the western
FL Panhandle has been made based on recent radar and observational
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020/
…Gulf Coast/Southeast States…
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will undergo modest additional
amplification while otherwise steadily moving eastward over the
region. Related warm/moist advection and modest elevated buoyancy
will continue to support isolated thunderstorms from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico north-northeastward toward the middle
Gulf Coast/northern Florida. Additional heating and some increase in
convergence inland should also support the development of convection
this afternoon over additional parts of the Florida Peninsula.